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Juventus U19 vs SPAL U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Juventus U19
Juventus U19
FT
1 – 2
SPAL U19
SPAL U19
6/9/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 28Juventus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Juventus U1956%
×Draw21%
SPAL U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus U19
2.09
SPAL U19
1.27

Juventus U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

creates per match

Juventus U19
2.19
SPAL U19
1.22

allows per match

Juventus U19
1.31
SPAL U19
2.00

finishing

Juventus U19+0.00on par
SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Juventus U19 or draw
77%
Juventus U19 or SPAL U19
79%
Draw or SPAL U19
44%

Winning margin

Juventus U19 wins by 2+
34%
SPAL U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Juventus U19 1+ goals
88%
Juventus U19 2+ goals
62%
Juventus U19 3+ goals
34%
SPAL U19 1+ goals
72%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
36%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Juventus U19 (draw refunded)
71%
SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U19 attack 2.19 + SPAL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

SPAL U19 attack 1.22 + Juventus U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Juventus U19 scores more
56%
level
21%
SPAL U19 scores more
23%

Juventus U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Juventus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus U19 vs SPAL U19

SPAL U19 beat Juventus U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on June 9, 2021.

The match was played at Juventus Training Center in Vinovo.