Juventus U19 1–2 Sassuolo U19: Result & Stats

Juventus U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sassuolo U19

3/4/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 24Juventus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Juventus U1950%

×Draw23%

Sassuolo U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus U19Expected goals in this matchSassuolo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.31

Juventus U19

1.84

Sassuolo U19

1.31

Juventus U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

2.19

creates per match

1.30

1.31

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Juventus U19

2.19

Sassuolo U19

1.30

allows per match

Juventus U19

1.31

Sassuolo U19

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus U19+0.00on par

Sassuolo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U19 ↓

Sassuolo U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Juventus U19 or draw

73%

Juventus U19 or Sassuolo U19

77%

Draw or Sassuolo U19

50%

Winning margin

Juventus U19 wins by 2+

28%

Sassuolo U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Juventus U19 1+ goals

84%

Juventus U19 2+ goals

55%

Juventus U19 3+ goals

28%

Sassuolo U19 1+ goals

73%

Sassuolo U19 2+ goals

38%

Sassuolo U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Juventus U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Sassuolo U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Sassuolo U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U19 attack 2.19 + Sassuolo U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sassuolo U19 attack 1.30 + Juventus U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Juventus U19 scores more

50%

level

23%

Sassuolo U19 scores more

27%

Juventus U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juventus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff