Juventus U19 4–1 Malmö FF U19: Result & Stats

Juventus U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Malmö FF U19

G. Doratiotto 78'

L. Cerri 59', 20'

S. Mbangula 30'

I. Bjerkebo 71'

12/8/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Juventus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Juventus U1960%

×Draw18%

Malmö FF U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus U19Expected goals in this matchMalmö FF U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.74

1.67

Juventus U19

2.74

Malmö FF U19

1.67

Juventus U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

2.47

creates per match

1.75

1.59

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Juventus U19

2.47

Malmö FF U19

1.75

allows per match

Juventus U19

1.59

Malmö FF U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus U19+0.00on par

Malmö FF U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U19 ↓

Malmö FF U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Juventus U19 or draw

77%

Juventus U19 or Malmö FF U19

82%

Draw or Malmö FF U19

40%

Winning margin

Juventus U19 wins by 2+

39%

Malmö FF U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juventus U19 1+ goals

93%

Juventus U19 2+ goals

75%

Juventus U19 3+ goals

51%

Malmö FF U19 1+ goals

81%

Malmö FF U19 2+ goals

50%

Malmö FF U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Juventus U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Malmö FF U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U19 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Malmö FF U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U19 attack 2.47 + Malmö FF U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.74

Malmö FF U19 attack 1.75 + Juventus U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Juventus U19 scores more

60%

level

18%

Malmö FF U19 scores more

23%

Juventus U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Juventus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

L. Cerri↳ T. Maressa

30'

S. Mbangula↳ K. Sekularac

37'

B. Strijdonck← T. Maressa

46'

N. Ledonne← M. Soulé

46'

E. Makolli← P. Strömberg

47'

59'

61'

63'

63'

L. Hamawand← M. Widell

70'

M. Bjorkqvist

70'

N. Savona← F. Fiumanò

70'

E. Omic← L. Dellavalle

71'

I. Bjerkebo↳ M. Björkqvist

75'

E. Lindman

78'

G. Doratiotto

86'

A. Avdic← H. Larsson

86'

S. Lindfors← E. Lindman

Juventus

Malmö

1

Andersson

27

▼

Hughes

18

Perez

3

Al-Imam

13

▼

Strömberg

5

▼

Lindman

6

A

Björkqvis

8

▼

Larsson

10

Bolin

9

⚽

Bjerkebo

14

▼

Widell

1

Senkó

19

▼

Fiumanò

24

▼

Dellavall

6

Citi

16

Rouhi

26

A

Sekularac

33

▼

Soulé

21

⚽

Doratiott

29

A

▼

Maressa

9

⚽2

▼

Cerri

25

⚽

Mbangula

Manager: A. Bonatti

37'▲B. Strijdonck←▼T. Maressa

46'▲N. Ledonne←▼M. Soulé

61'▲L. Anghelè←▼L. Cerri

70'▲N. Savona←▼F. Fiumanò

70'▲E. Omic←▼L. Dellavalle

Juventus U19 substitutes

28Strijdonck23Ledonne36Anghelè2Savona4Omic12Scaglia3Turicchia

Manager: M. Westerberg

46'▲E. Makolli←▼P. Strömberg

63'▲R. Adjei←▼A. Hughes

63'▲L. Hamawand←▼M. Widell

86'▲A. Avdic←▼H. Larsson

86'▲S. Lindfors←▼E. Lindman

Malmö FF U19 substitutes

2Makolli25Adjei26Hamawand7Avdic20Lindfors16Eriksson15Malky

UEFA Youth League: Juventus U19 4–1 Malmö FF U19

Juventus U19 beat Malmö FF U19 4-1 in UEFA Youth League on December 8, 2021.

Goals: L. Cerri (20', 59'), S. Mbangula (30'), I. Bjerkebo (71'), G. Doratiotto (78').

The match was played at Juventus Training Center in Vinovo.

Juventus U19 vs Malmö FF U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Juventus U19 4–1 Malmö FF U19