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Juventus SC vs FC Porto — Catarinense - 2 2022

Juventus SC
Juventus SC
FT
3 – 0
FC Porto
FC Porto
6/1/2025Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 1Estádio João Marcatto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Juventus SC82%
×Draw12%
FC Porto6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus SC
2.92
FC Porto
0.67

Juventus SC creates 336% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 4 away

creates per match

Juventus SC
1.35
FC Porto
0.25

allows per match

Juventus SC
1.09
FC Porto
4.50

finishing

Juventus SC+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus SC ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Juventus SC or draw
94%
Juventus SC or FC Porto
88%
Draw or FC Porto
18%

Winning margin

Juventus SC wins by 2+
63%
FC Porto wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Juventus SC 1+ goals
94%
Juventus SC 2+ goals
78%
Juventus SC 3+ goals
55%
FC Porto 1+ goals
49%
FC Porto 2+ goals
15%
FC Porto 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Juventus SC (draw refunded)
93%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

FC Porto away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus SC attack 1.35 + FC Porto defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 2.92

FC Porto attack 0.25 + Juventus SC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Juventus SC scores more
82%
level
12%
FC Porto scores more
6%

Juventus SC at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Juventus SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Juventus SC 3–0 FC Porto

Juventus SC beat FC Porto 3-0 in Catarinense - 2 on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio João Marcatto in Jaraguá do Sul, Santa Catarina.