Juventus SC 1–1 Caravaggio: Result & Stats

Juventus SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Caravaggio

Lucas Serravalle 68'

Rafael Favero 32'

6/11/2023

Catarinense - 2 · Round 3Estádio João Marcatto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Juventus SC33%

×Draw27%

Caravaggio40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus SCExpected goals in this matchCaravaggio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.31

Juventus SC

1.18

Caravaggio

1.31

Caravaggio creates 11% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

1.36

creates per match

1.55

1.08

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Juventus SC

1.36

Caravaggio

1.55

allows per match

Juventus SC

1.08

Caravaggio

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus SC+0.00on par

Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus SC ↓

Caravaggio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juventus SC or draw

60%

Juventus SC or Caravaggio

73%

Draw or Caravaggio

67%

Winning margin

Juventus SC wins by 2+

14%

Caravaggio wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Juventus SC 1+ goals

69%

Juventus SC 2+ goals

33%

Juventus SC 3+ goals

12%

Caravaggio 1+ goals

73%

Caravaggio 2+ goals

38%

Caravaggio 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Juventus SC (draw refunded)

46%

Caravaggio (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus SC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus SC attack 1.36 + Caravaggio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Caravaggio attack 1.55 + Juventus SC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventus SC scores more

33%

level

27%

Caravaggio scores more

40%

Caravaggio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Caravaggio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Rafael Favero

68'

Lucas Serravalle

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff