Juventus Managua 2–2 Junior Managua: Result & Stats

Juventus Managua

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Junior Managua

A. Chavarria 35', 31'

B. Montiel 38'

O. Reyes 33'

5/5/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - 18Complejo Deportivo De Fútbol Arnoldo y Matty Chávez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Juventus Managua50%

×Draw24%

Junior Managua26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus ManaguaExpected goals in this matchJunior Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.18

Juventus Managua

1.74

Junior Managua

1.18

Juventus Managua creates 47% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 18 away

1.70

creates per match

0.89

1.47

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Juventus Managua

1.70

Junior Managua

0.89

allows per match

Juventus Managua

1.47

Junior Managua

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus Managua+0.00on par

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Managua ↓

Junior Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Juventus Managua or draw

74%

Juventus Managua or Junior Managua

76%

Draw or Junior Managua

50%

Winning margin

Juventus Managua wins by 2+

27%

Junior Managua wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juventus Managua 1+ goals

82%

Juventus Managua 2+ goals

52%

Juventus Managua 3+ goals

25%

Junior Managua 1+ goals

69%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

33%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Juventus Managua (draw refunded)

66%

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Managua at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.47 · 70 matches

Junior Managua away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Managua attack 1.70 + Junior Managua defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.74

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Juventus Managua defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Juventus Managua scores more

50%

level

24%

Junior Managua scores more

26%

Juventus Managua at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juventus Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

E. Mercado← S. Cáceres

31'

33'

35'

38'

46'

Juventus

Junior

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

Manager: A. Morales

Juventus Managua substitutes

MorenoGuardadoBolañosPastránBernàrdezAyestasGuevara

Manager: J. Ruíz

22'▲E. Mercado←▼S. Cáceres

46'▲B. Román←▼F. García

Junior Managua substitutes

MercadoRománHernándezAragónNarvaezAcevedoGomez

Match Recap: Juventus Managua vs Junior Managua

Juventus Managua and Junior Managua drew 2-2 in Primera Division on May 5, 2021.

Goals: A. Chavarria (31', 35'), O. Reyes (33'), B. Montiel (38').

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo De Fútbol Arnoldo y Matty Chávez in Masaya.

Juventus Managua vs Junior Managua — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Juventus Managua vs Junior Managua