Juventus Managua 2–1 Jalapa: Result & Stats

Juventus Managua

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jalapa

D. Cadena 86'

J. Arteaga 30'

E. Alcázar 57'

4/29/2022

Primera Division · Clausura - 17Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Juventus Managua54%

×Draw22%

Jalapa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus ManaguaExpected goals in this matchJalapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.19

Juventus Managua

1.90

Jalapa

1.19

Juventus Managua creates 60% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 128 away

1.70

creates per match

0.91

1.47

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Juventus Managua

1.70

Jalapa

0.91

allows per match

Juventus Managua

1.47

Jalapa

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus Managua+0.00on par

Jalapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Managua ↓

Jalapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Juventus Managua or draw

76%

Juventus Managua or Jalapa

78%

Draw or Jalapa

46%

Winning margin

Juventus Managua wins by 2+

31%

Jalapa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Juventus Managua 1+ goals

85%

Juventus Managua 2+ goals

56%

Juventus Managua 3+ goals

29%

Jalapa 1+ goals

70%

Jalapa 2+ goals

33%

Jalapa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Juventus Managua (draw refunded)

69%

Jalapa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Managua at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.47 · 70 matches

Jalapa away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Managua attack 1.70 + Jalapa defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.90

Jalapa attack 0.91 + Juventus Managua defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Juventus Managua scores more

54%

level

22%

Jalapa scores more

24%

Juventus Managua at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juventus Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Arteaga

46'

D. Cadena← D. Castrillón

57'

E. Alcázar

68'

C. López← E. González

69'

J. Loaisiga← E. Alcázar

86'

D. Cadena

90+2'

S. Rugama← J. Colón

Juventus

Jalapa

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Morales

46'▲D. Cadena←▼D. Castrillón

68'▲C. López←▼E. González

Juventus Managua substitutes

CadenaLópezDávilaBonillaJarquínReyesPastrán

Manager: H. Medina

69'▲J. Loaisiga←▼E. Alcázar

90+2'▲S. Rugama←▼J. Colón

Jalapa substitutes

LoaisigaRugamaRochaMaradiagaJiménezRiascosHerrera

Primera Division: Juventus Managua 2–1 Jalapa

Juventus Managua beat Jalapa 2-1 in Primera Division on April 29, 2022.

Goals: J. Arteaga (30'), E. Alcázar (57'), D. Cadena (86').

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.

Juventus Managua vs Jalapa — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Juventus Managua 2–1 Jalapa