Juventus Managua 9–0 Deportivo Ocotal

Juventus Managua

FT

9 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Deportivo Ocotal

J. Cano 90'

Lucas dos Santos 84' (pen), 76' (pen), 66', 40', 1'

K. Downs 54', 16'

E. García 34'

11/30/2022

Primera Division · Apertura - 18Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Juventus Managua57%

×Draw21%

Deportivo Ocotal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus ManaguaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Ocotal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.15

Juventus Managua

2.03

Deportivo Ocotal

1.15

Juventus Managua creates 77% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 108 away

1.70

creates per match

0.83

1.47

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Juventus Managua

1.70

Deportivo Ocotal

0.83

allows per match

Juventus Managua

1.47

Deportivo Ocotal

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus Managua+0.00on par

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Managua ↓

Deportivo Ocotal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Juventus Managua or draw

79%

Juventus Managua or Deportivo Ocotal

79%

Draw or Deportivo Ocotal

43%

Winning margin

Juventus Managua wins by 2+

34%

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Juventus Managua 1+ goals

87%

Juventus Managua 2+ goals

60%

Juventus Managua 3+ goals

33%

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Juventus Managua (draw refunded)

73%

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Managua at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.47 · 70 matches

Deportivo Ocotal away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.36 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Managua attack 1.70 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.03

Deportivo Ocotal attack 0.83 + Juventus Managua defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Juventus Managua scores more

57%

level

21%

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

21%

Juventus Managua at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Juventus Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Lucas dos Santos

16'

K. Downs

34'

E. García

39'

40'

Lucas dos Santos

46'

R. Rodríguez← R. Molina

54'

K. Downs

58'

A. Chavarría← K. Thomas

58'

J. Cisneros← E. García

58'

M. Cruz← D. Castrillón

63'

J. Gallo← J. Urcuyo

66'

Lucas dos Santos

67'

W. Peralta← K. Downs

70'

J. Cano← E. Hernández

71'

J. Fernández← A. Herrera

76'

Lucas dos SantosPenalty

84'

Lucas dos SantosPenalty

90'

J. Cano

Juventus

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽5

⚽

▼

García

⚽2

▼

Downs

Manager: D. Urbina

58'▲A. Chavarría←▼K. Thomas

58'▲J. Cisneros←▼E. García

58'▲M. Cruz←▼D. Castrillón

67'▲W. Peralta←▼K. Downs

70'▲J. Cano←▼E. Hernández

Juventus Managua substitutes

ChavarríaCisnerosCruzPeraltaCanoDávilaGonzález

Manager: N.Vásquez

46'▲R. Rodríguez←▼R. Molina

63'▲J. Gallo←▼J. Urcuyo

71'▲J. Fernández←▼A. Herrera

Deportivo Ocotal substitutes

RodríguezGalloFernándezMongeMoncadaOlivasMarín

Primera Division: Juventus Managua 9–0 Deportivo Ocotal

Juventus Managua beat Deportivo Ocotal 9-0 in Primera Division on November 30, 2022.

Goals: Lucas dos Santos (1', 40', 66', 76' pen, 84' pen), K. Downs (16', 54'), E. García (34'), J. Cano (90').

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.

Juventus Managua vs Deportivo Ocotal — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Juventus Managua 9–0 Deportivo Ocotal