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Juventus Malchika vs Yantra Polski Trambesh — Third League - Northwest 2018

Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
FT
1 – 3
Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
11/11/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 14Stadion Georgi Karchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Juventus Malchika41%
×Draw22%
Yantra Polski Trambesh37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Malchika
1.80
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 99 away

creates per match

Juventus Malchika
1.48
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.40

allows per match

Juventus Malchika
2.02
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.12

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par
Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw
63%
Juventus Malchika or Yantra Polski Trambesh
78%
Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh
59%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
21%
Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
83%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
54%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
27%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
82%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
51%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
52%
Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.80

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more
41%
level
22%
Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
37%

Juventus Malchika at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juventus Malchika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus Malchika vs Yantra Polski Trambesh

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Juventus Malchika 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Karchev in Malchika.