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Juventus Malchika vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
FT
0 – 0
Tryavna
Tryavna
9/22/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 7Stadion Georgi Karchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Juventus Malchika57%
×Draw20%
Tryavna23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Malchika
2.19
Tryavna
1.32

Juventus Malchika creates 66% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 39 away

creates per match

Juventus Malchika
1.48
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Juventus Malchika
2.02
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw
77%
Juventus Malchika or Tryavna
80%
Draw or Tryavna
43%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
35%
Tryavna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
89%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
64%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
37%
Tryavna 1+ goals
73%
Tryavna 2+ goals
38%
Tryavna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
72%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.19

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more
57%
level
20%
Tryavna scores more
23%

Juventus Malchika at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Juventus Malchika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus Malchika vs Tryavna

Juventus Malchika and Tryavna drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Karchev in Malchika.