Juventus Malchika 1–4 Drenovets: Result & Stats

Juventus Malchika

FT

1 – 4

Drenovets

3/31/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 21Stadion Georgi Karchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Juventus Malchika52%

×Draw22%

Drenovets26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus MalchikaExpected goals in this matchDrenovets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.39

Juventus Malchika

2.02

Drenovets

1.39

Juventus Malchika creates 45% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

1.48

creates per match

0.76

2.02

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Juventus Malchika

1.48

Drenovets

0.76

allows per match

Juventus Malchika

2.02

Drenovets

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Drenovets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw

74%

Juventus Malchika or Drenovets

78%

Draw or Drenovets

48%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+

30%

Drenovets wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals

87%

Juventus Malchika 2+ goals

60%

Juventus Malchika 3+ goals

33%

Drenovets 1+ goals

75%

Drenovets 2+ goals

40%

Drenovets 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)

66%

Drenovets (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.02

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more

52%

level

22%

Drenovets scores more

26%

Juventus Malchika at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Juventus Malchika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff