Juventus Bucuresti 1–1 Ripensia Timisoara

Juventus Bucuresti

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ripensia Timisoara

11/24/2018

Liga II · Round 18Stadionul Juventus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti47%

×Draw25%

Ripensia Timisoara28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus BucurestiExpected goals in this matchRipensia Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.20

Juventus Bucuresti

1.61

Ripensia Timisoara

1.20

Juventus Bucuresti creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

1.74

creates per match

1.03

1.37

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti

1.74

Ripensia Timisoara

1.03

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti

1.37

Ripensia Timisoara

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw

72%

Juventus Bucuresti or Ripensia Timisoara

75%

Draw or Ripensia Timisoara

53%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+

24%

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals

80%

Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals

48%

Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals

22%

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

70%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

34%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)

62%

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more

47%

level

25%

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

28%

Juventus Bucuresti at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff