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Juventus Bucuresti vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
CANC
08:00
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
4/11/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti34%
×Draw25%
Petrolul Ploiesti41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.33
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.47

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.57

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.93

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
59%
Juventus Bucuresti or Petrolul Ploiesti
75%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
66%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
15%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
74%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
38%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
15%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
77%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
43%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
46%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.57 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
34%
level
25%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
41%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventus Bucuresti host Petrolul Ploiesti

April 11, 2020: Juventus Bucuresti take on Petrolul Ploiesti in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.