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Juventus Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
CANC
08:00
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
5/23/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti47%
×Draw25%
Farul Constanta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.58
Farul Constanta
1.17

Juventus Bucuresti creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 45 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
Farul Constanta
0.96

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
Farul Constanta
1.42

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
72%
Juventus Bucuresti or Farul Constanta
75%
Draw or Farul Constanta
53%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
24%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
79%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
47%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
21%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
69%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
33%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
62%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Farul Constanta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Farul Constanta attack 0.96 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
47%
level
25%
Farul Constanta scores more
28%

Juventus Bucuresti at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventus Bucuresti face Farul Constanta (Liga II)

Liga II returns with Juventus Bucuresti hosting Farul Constanta. Match starts May 23, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.