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Juventus Bucuresti vs Dunarea Calarasi — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
CANC
08:00
Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
10/5/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 10Stadionul Juventus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti53%
×Draw24%
Dunarea Calarasi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.73
Dunarea Calarasi
1.08

Juventus Bucuresti creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 40 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
Dunarea Calarasi
0.80

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
Dunarea Calarasi
1.73

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
76%
Juventus Bucuresti or Dunarea Calarasi
76%
Draw or Dunarea Calarasi
47%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
29%
Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
82%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
52%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
25%
Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
66%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
29%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
69%
Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dunarea Calarasi attack 0.80 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
53%
level
24%
Dunarea Calarasi scores more
24%

Juventus Bucuresti at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventus Bucuresti host Dunarea Calarasi

October 5, 2019: Juventus Bucuresti take on Dunarea Calarasi in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Juventus Bucuresti host Dunarea Calarasi at Stadionul Juventus.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.