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Juventus Bucuresti vs ACS Poli Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
6/1/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 38Stadionul Juventus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti58%
×Draw22%
ACS Poli Timisoara19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.87
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.98

Juventus Bucuresti creates 91% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.58

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
ACS Poli Timisoara
2.00

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

ACS Poli Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
81%
Juventus Bucuresti or ACS Poli Timisoara
78%
Draw or ACS Poli Timisoara
42%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
34%
ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
85%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
56%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
29%
ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
62%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
26%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
75%
ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

ACS Poli Timisoara away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.87

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 0.58 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
58%
level
22%
ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
19%

Juventus Bucuresti at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Juventus Bucuresti 3–1 ACS Poli Timisoara

Juventus Bucuresti beat ACS Poli Timisoara 3-1 in Liga II on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Juventus.