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Juventude vs Oeste — Serie B 2026

Juventude
Juventude
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oeste
Oeste
Suéliton 45' (OG)
Bruno Lopes 76'
4/20/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 2Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Juventude49%
×Draw27%
Oeste24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude
1.42
Oeste
0.91

Juventude creates 56% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 69 away

creates per match

Juventude
1.15
Oeste
0.99

allows per match

Juventude
0.82
Oeste
1.68

finishing

Juventude+0.00on par
Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Juventude or draw
76%
Juventude or Oeste
73%
Draw or Oeste
51%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+
24%
Oeste wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals
76%
Juventude 2+ goals
41%
Juventude 3+ goals
17%
Oeste 1+ goals
60%
Oeste 2+ goals
23%
Oeste 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)
67%
Oeste (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.82 · 61 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.15 + Oeste defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

Oeste attack 0.99 + Juventude defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Juventude scores more
49%
level
27%
Oeste scores more
24%

Juventude at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
JairJuventudeJuventude · M
7.5

Match Events

9'
Suéliton← Daniel de Oliveira
24'
Pedrinho
26'
Caio Rangel
28'
Léo Arthur
29'
Claudinho← Joilson
36'
Bonilha
44'
Sueliton
45'
Fellipe Mateus
45'
SuélitonOwn goal
46'
Vidal← Felipe Mattioni
53'
Jair
65'
Micael← Fred
71'
Nicolas Careca← Carlinhos
76'
Bruno Lopes
79'
Tony← Leandro Lima
90'
Nicolas Careca
90'
Léo Arthur
90'
Léo Arthur

Possession

47%Juventude

Shots

9Juventude

Pass accuracy

48%Juventude

Statistics

JuventudeOeste
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots11
10Corners3
17Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots11
3On Target4
3Off Target4
3Blocked3
4Inside Box4
6Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
311Total Passes358
209Accurate Passes257
67%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls15
3Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
5Offsides1

Serie B: Juventude 1–1 Oeste

Juventude and Oeste drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 20, 2018.

Goals: Suéliton (45' o.g.), Bruno Lopes (76').

Oeste controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Caxias do Sul.