Juventude 2–2 Mirassol: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Mirassol

E. Batalla 45'

Enio 24'

Reinaldo 72' (pen)

Iury Castilho 34'

4/20/2025

Serie A · Round 5Estadio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Juventude37%

×Draw27%

Mirassol36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchMirassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.28

Juventude

1.29

Mirassol

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

1.14

creates per match

1.27

1.29

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Juventude

1.14

Mirassol

1.27

allows per match

Juventude

1.29

Mirassol

1.44

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Juventude+0.12scores more

Mirassol-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Mirassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

64%

Juventude or Mirassol

73%

Draw or Mirassol

63%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

16%

Mirassol wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

72%

Juventude 2+ goals

37%

Juventude 3+ goals

14%

Mirassol 1+ goals

72%

Mirassol 2+ goals

37%

Mirassol 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

50%

Mirassol (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Mirassol away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.44 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.14 + Mirassol defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mirassol attack 1.27 + Juventude defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Juventude scores more

37%

level

27%

Mirassol scores more

36%

Juventude at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Ewerthon

Juventude · D

7.7

Match Events

11'

Felipinho

24'

Enio↳ Jadson

34'

Iury Castilho↳ Edson Carioca

45'

E. Batalla↳ Gabriel Taliari

46'

Cristian Renato← Iury Castilho

54'

Wilker Ángel

58'

Mandaca← Jean Carlos

58'

Gilberto← Gabriel Taliari

58'

Vitor Pernambuco← E. Batalla

65'

Fabricio Daniel← Yago Felipe

68'

Lucas RamonPenalty confirmed

72'

ReinaldoPenalty

74'

Clayson← Negueba

79'

Nene← D. Giraldo

82'

Alex Muralha

82'

Jose Aldo← Neto Moura

82'

Maceio← Edson Carioca

85'

José Aldo

86'

Giovanny← Enio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeMirassol

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots25

1.24Expected Goals (xG)2.23

5Corners3

18Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots25

6On Target6

6Off Target4

6Blocked15

12Inside Box18

6Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

341Total Passes437

266Accurate Passes359

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-1.13Goals Prevented-1.13

Discipline

18Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0