Juventude 2–1 Ituano: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juventude

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ituano

11/4/2023

Serie B · Round 35Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Juventude46%

×Draw28%

Ituano26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchItuano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.91

Juventude

1.33

Ituano

0.91

Juventude creates 46% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 57 away

1.18

creates per match

0.96

0.85

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Juventude

1.18

Ituano

0.96

allows per match

Juventude

0.85

Ituano

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude+0.00on par

Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Ituano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

74%

Juventude or Ituano

72%

Draw or Ituano

54%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

22%

Ituano wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

74%

Juventude 2+ goals

38%

Juventude 3+ goals

15%

Ituano 1+ goals

60%

Ituano 2+ goals

23%

Ituano 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

64%

Ituano (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Ituano away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.18 + Ituano defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ituano attack 0.96 + Juventude defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Juventude scores more

46%

level

28%

Ituano scores more

26%

Juventude at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff