Juventude 0–2 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Gremio

C. Olivera 38'

M. Braithwaite 14' (pen)

6/1/2025

Serie A · Round 11Estadio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Juventude38%

×Draw27%

Gremio35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.20

Juventude

1.27

Gremio

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 48 away

1.09

creates per match

1.13

1.27

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Juventude

1.09

Gremio

1.13

allows per match

Juventude

1.27

Gremio

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

65%

Juventude or Gremio

73%

Draw or Gremio

62%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

17%

Gremio wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

72%

Juventude 2+ goals

36%

Juventude 3+ goals

14%

Gremio 1+ goals

70%

Gremio 2+ goals

34%

Gremio 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

52%

Gremio (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.09 + Gremio defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gremio attack 1.13 + Juventude defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juventude scores more

38%

level

27%

Gremio scores more

35%

Juventude at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Walter Kannemann

Gremio · D

8.3

Match Events

12'

Walter KannemannPenalty confirmed

14'

M. BraithwaitePenalty

36'

Luis MandacaPenalty cancelled

38'

C. Olivera↳ F. Cristaldo

46'

Enio← Giovanny

48'

Marcos Paulo

56'

Andre Henrique← M. Braithwaite

64'

Jean Carlos← Nene

64'

Peixoto← Caique Goncalves

64'

A. Aravena← Alysson

66'

Wagner Leonardo

69'

Alan Ruschel

75'

Gilberto← Mandaca

75'

Matheus Babi← Gabriel Taliari

81'

Ronald← C. Olivera

81'

R. Freitas dos Santos← F. Cristaldo

87'

Gustavo Martins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeGremio

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots18

0.74Expected Goals (xG)2.65

5Corners7

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots18

5On Target9

4Off Target8

5Blocked1

5Inside Box13

9Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

406Total Passes325

341Accurate Passes254

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

0.65Goals Prevented0.65

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0