Juventude 3–5 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juventude

FT

3 – 5

HT: 2 – 0

Goias

Micael 90+2'

Hugo 43', 39'

Felipe Gedoz 90+3'

Robinho 84'

Michael 72', 64'

Lucão 62'

10/12/2018

Serie B · Round 31Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Juventude44%

×Draw28%

Goias28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.99

Juventude

1.31

Goias

0.99

Juventude creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

1.20

creates per match

1.33

0.65

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Juventude

1.20

Goias

1.33

allows per match

Juventude

0.65

Goias

1.42

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Juventude-0.20scores less

Goias-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

72%

Juventude or Goias

72%

Draw or Goias

56%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

20%

Goias wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

73%

Juventude 2+ goals

38%

Juventude 3+ goals

14%

Goias 1+ goals

63%

Goias 2+ goals

26%

Goias 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

61%

Goias (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.65 · 8 matches

Goias away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.20 + Goias defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Goias attack 1.33 + Juventude defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juventude scores more

44%

level

28%

Goias scores more

28%

Juventude at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Douglas

12'

Deivid Duarte

14'

Michael Delgado

39'

Hugo↳ Vidal

41'

Caio Rangel

43'

Hugo↳ Rodrigo

61'

Júnior Viçosa← Renato Cajá

61'

Robinho← Rafinha

62'

Lucão↳ Giovanni

64'

Michael↳ Giovanni

68'

Matheus Bertotto← Caio Rangel

72'

Michael↳ Alex Silva

75'

Rafinha← Lucas Santos

80'

Vidal

80'

Guilherme Queiroz← Denner

81'

Júnior Viçosa

84'

Robinho↳ Ernandes

86'

Felipe Gedoz← Lucão

90+2'

Micael↳ Hugo

90+3'

Felipe Gedoz↳ Júnior Viçosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeGoias

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots16

8Corners7

17Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots16

6On Target10

6Off Target5

1Blocked1

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

364Total Passes385

286Accurate Passes284

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2