Juventude 1–0 Chapecoense-sc: Result & Stats

Juventude

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chapecoense-sc

Matheus Peixoto 4'

7/26/2021

Serie A · Round 13Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Juventude57%

×Draw23%

Chapecoense-sc19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchChapecoense-sc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.91

Juventude

1.76

Chapecoense-sc

0.91

Juventude creates 93% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 8 away

1.14

creates per match

0.52

1.29

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Juventude

1.14

Chapecoense-sc

0.52

allows per match

Juventude

1.29

Chapecoense-sc

2.38

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Juventude+0.12scores more

Chapecoense-sc-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Chapecoense-sc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

81%

Juventude or Chapecoense-sc

77%

Draw or Chapecoense-sc

43%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

32%

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

83%

Juventude 2+ goals

52%

Juventude 3+ goals

26%

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

60%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

23%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

75%

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Chapecoense-sc away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.14 + Chapecoense-sc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.76

Chapecoense-sc attack 0.52 + Juventude defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Juventude scores more

57%

level

23%

Chapecoense-sc scores more

19%

Juventude at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Matheus Peixoto

Juventude · F

7.7

Match Events

4'

Matheus Peixoto↳ Paulo Henrique

33'

Marcelo Carné

34'

Jádson

44'

Derlan

46'

Fernandinho← Moisés Ribeiro

52'

Matheus Jesus

58'

Capixaba← Matheus Jesus

68'

70'

75'

75'

79'

Cleberson← Marcos Vinicios

80'

Bruninho← Dawhan

82'

Fabinho← Derlan

87'

Chico← Wescley

88'

Vitor Mendes

89'

BruninhoGoal confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeChapecoense-sc

Overview

33%Possession67%

13Total Shots7

3Corners1

16Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots7

2On Target2

5Off Target4

6Blocked1

3Inside Box3

10Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

266Total Passes537

196Accurate Passes465

74%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls15

5Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1