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Juventude vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2026

Juventude
Juventude
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
8/29/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 6Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Juventude56%
×Draw27%
Botafogo SP17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude
1.41
Botafogo SP
0.63

Juventude creates 124% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

creates per match

Juventude
1.12
Botafogo SP
0.79

allows per match

Juventude
0.47
Botafogo SP
1.69

finishing

Juventude+0.00on par
Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Botafogo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Juventude or draw
83%
Juventude or Botafogo SP
73%
Draw or Botafogo SP
44%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+
28%
Botafogo SP wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals
76%
Juventude 2+ goals
41%
Juventude 3+ goals
17%
Botafogo SP 1+ goals
47%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
13%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)
77%
Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.12 + Botafogo SP defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Botafogo SP attack 0.79 + Juventude defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Juventude scores more
56%
level
27%
Botafogo SP scores more
17%

Juventude at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
RonaldBotafogo SPBotafogo SP · M
7.5

Match Events

45'
Marciel
59'
Naldo← Victor Bolt
64'
Capixaba← Tarta
64'
Gustavo Bochecha← Marciel
71'
Roberto← Renato Cajá
72'
Gabriel Novaes← Rafael Silva
72'
Helder Santos← Eltinho
79'
Guilherme Romão
83'
Matheus Ferreira← Elicarlos
83'
Murilo Oliveira← Rafinha
83'
Gabriel Calabres← Gustavo Henrique
88'
Lucas← Guilherme Romão
89'
Gabriel Calabres

Possession

61%Juventude

Shots

13Juventude

Pass accuracy

53%Juventude

Statistics

JuventudeBotafogo
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots11
7Corners3
14Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots11
1On Target1
9Off Target8
3Blocked2
3Inside Box7
10Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
479Total Passes304
399Accurate Passes227
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Serie B: Juventude 0–0 Botafogo SP

Juventude and Botafogo SP drew 0-0 in Serie B on August 29, 2020.

Juventude controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.