Juventude 1–3 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Juventude

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Paranaense

Jadson 38'

Vitor Bueno 90+6'

D. Terans 63'

Pablo 45+2'

6/8/2022

Serie A · Round 10Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Juventude38%

×Draw28%

Atletico Paranaense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.10

Juventude

1.18

Atletico Paranaense

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

1.11

creates per match

0.88

1.32

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Juventude

1.11

Atletico Paranaense

0.88

allows per match

Juventude

1.32

Atletico Paranaense

1.24

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Juventude+0.19scores more

Atletico Paranaense+0.08on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

66%

Juventude or Atletico Paranaense

72%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

62%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

16%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

69%

Juventude 2+ goals

33%

Juventude 3+ goals

12%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

67%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

30%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

53%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 20 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.11 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.88 + Juventude defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juventude scores more

38%

level

28%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

34%

Juventude at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92

Pablo

Atletico Paranaense · F

8.0

Match Events

20'

Pablo

36'

Jean Irmer

38'

Jadson

45+2'

Pablo↳ D. Terans

62'

Ó. Ruíz← I. Pitta

62'

Rômulo← Paulo Henrique

63'

Capixaba← Chico

63'

Léo Cittadini← Pedro Rocha

63'

D. Terans↳ Léo Cittadini

69'

Marlon← Jadson

69'

Ricardo Bueno← Jean Irmer

73'

Bento

73'

Pedro Henrique

75'

Erick← T. Cuello

75'

Marcelo Cirino← Matheus Fernandes

76'

Rômulo

85'

Vitor Bueno← D. Terans

85'

Matheus Felipe← N. Hernández

90'

Abner Vinícius

90+6'

Vitor Bueno↳ Pablo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeAtletico

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots7

11Corners5

9Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots7

4On Target6

8Off Target0

6Blocked1

9Inside Box3

9Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

384Total Passes338

290Accurate Passes235

76%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1