Juventude 1–1 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico-MG

Jean Carlos 43'

J. Alonso 18'

7/16/2024

Serie A · Round 17Arena BRB Mané Garrincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Juventude38%

×Draw28%

Atletico-MG34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.14

Juventude

1.22

Atletico-MG

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 44 away

1.14

creates per match

0.99

1.29

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Juventude

1.14

Atletico-MG

0.99

allows per match

Juventude

1.29

Atletico-MG

1.30

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Juventude+0.12scores more

Atletico-MG-0.08on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

66%

Juventude or Atletico-MG

72%

Draw or Atletico-MG

62%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

16%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

70%

Juventude 2+ goals

34%

Juventude 3+ goals

12%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

68%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

32%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

53%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.14 + Atletico-MG defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Atletico-MG attack 0.99 + Juventude defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juventude scores more

38%

level

28%

Atletico-MG scores more

34%

Juventude at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Alonso

Atletico-MG · D

8.0

Match Events

18'

J. Alonso

22'

Jean Carlos

43'

Jean Carlos↳ Gabriel Taliari

45+7'

Guilherme Arana

54'

Luís Oyama← Jádson

54'

David da Hora← Erick Farias

65'

HulkGoal cancelled

69'

Abner

71'

Ewerthon← Lucas Barbosa

71'

R. Carrillo← Gabriel Taliari

74'

E. Vargas← A. Franco

79'

Mandaca← Jean Carlos

80'

Alan Kardec← J. Alonso

88'

B. Palacios← Bernard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeAtletico-MG

Overview

27%Possession73%

8Total Shots20

0.88Expected Goals (xG)1.77

1Corners8

8Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots20

2On Target5

2Off Target10

4Blocked5

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box11

Passing

27%Possession73%

246Total Passes681

174Accurate Passes603

71%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.32Goals Prevented0.32

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3