Juventude U17 1–1 Vitoria U17: Result & Stats

Juventude U17

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vitoria U17

7/21/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Juventude U1752%

×Draw24%

Vitoria U1724%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventude U17Expected goals in this matchVitoria U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.07

Juventude U17

1.71

Vitoria U17

1.07

Juventude U17 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

1.00

1.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Juventude U17

1.43

Vitoria U17

1.00

allows per match

Juventude U17

1.14

Vitoria U17

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude U17+0.00on par

Vitoria U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude U17 ↓

Vitoria U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Juventude U17 or draw

76%

Juventude U17 or Vitoria U17

76%

Draw or Vitoria U17

48%

Winning margin

Juventude U17 wins by 2+

28%

Vitoria U17 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Juventude U17 1+ goals

82%

Juventude U17 2+ goals

51%

Juventude U17 3+ goals

24%

Vitoria U17 1+ goals

66%

Vitoria U17 2+ goals

29%

Vitoria U17 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventude U17 (draw refunded)

69%

Vitoria U17 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude U17 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Vitoria U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude U17 attack 1.43 + Vitoria U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vitoria U17 attack 1.00 + Juventude U17 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Juventude U17 scores more

52%

level

24%

Vitoria U17 scores more

24%

Juventude U17 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Juventude U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff