Juventude U17 0–4 America MG U17: Result & Stats

Juventude U17

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

America MG U17

6/9/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Juventude U1754%

×Draw22%

America MG U1724%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventude U17Expected goals in this matchAmerica MG U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.21

Juventude U17

1.91

America MG U17

1.21

Juventude U17 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.43

creates per match

1.28

1.14

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Juventude U17

1.43

America MG U17

1.28

allows per match

Juventude U17

1.14

America MG U17

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude U17+0.00on par

America MG U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude U17 ↓

America MG U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Juventude U17 or draw

76%

Juventude U17 or America MG U17

78%

Draw or America MG U17

46%

Winning margin

Juventude U17 wins by 2+

31%

America MG U17 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juventude U17 1+ goals

85%

Juventude U17 2+ goals

57%

Juventude U17 3+ goals

30%

America MG U17 1+ goals

70%

America MG U17 2+ goals

34%

America MG U17 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Juventude U17 (draw refunded)

69%

America MG U17 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude U17 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

America MG U17 away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude U17 attack 1.43 + America MG U17 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.91

America MG U17 attack 1.28 + Juventude U17 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Juventude U17 scores more

54%

level

22%

America MG U17 scores more

24%

Juventude U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juventude U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff