Juventude MA 0–1 River AC: Result & Stats | Serie D

Juventude MA

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

River AC

Weslley 90+3'

11/14/2020

Serie D · Round 12Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Juventude MA35%

×Draw29%

River AC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventude MAExpected goals in this matchRiver AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.13

Juventude MA

1.10

River AC

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

1.21

creates per match

1.05

1.21

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Juventude MA

1.21

River AC

1.05

allows per match

Juventude MA

1.21

River AC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par

River AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

River AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw

64%

Juventude MA or River AC

71%

Draw or River AC

65%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+

14%

River AC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals

67%

Juventude MA 2+ goals

30%

Juventude MA 3+ goals

10%

River AC 1+ goals

68%

River AC 2+ goals

31%

River AC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)

49%

River AC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

River AC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + River AC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

River AC attack 1.05 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Juventude MA scores more

35%

level

29%

River AC scores more

36%

River AC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "River AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Marcos Vinícius← Bruninho

56'

Max← Wendel

64'

Vinicius← Naôh

74'

Caio← Marciano

74'

Gotinha← Hiltinho

79'

Bagaceira← João Gabriel

85'

Chulapa← Indio

90+3'

Weslley

Juventude

River

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Henrique

64'▲Vinicius←▼Naôh

74'▲Caio←▼Marciano

74'▲Gotinha←▼Hiltinho

85'▲Chulapa←▼Indio

Juventude MA substitutes

ViniciusCaioGotinhaChulapaBrunoAndersonDanielFelipeNalberthJailson

Manager: Flávio Araújo

56'▲Marcos Vinícius←▼Bruninho

56'▲Max←▼Wendel

79'▲Bagaceira←▼João Gabriel

River AC substitutes

ViníciusMaxBagaceiraGiovaniIgorJairoVinicius

Serie D: Juventude MA 0–1 River AC

River AC beat Juventude MA 1-0 in Serie D on November 14, 2020.

Goals: Weslley (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto in São Mateus, Maranhão.

Juventude MA vs River AC — Serie D 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Juventude MA 0–1 River AC