Juventude MA 1–3 Paragominas: Result & Stats

Juventude MA

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Paragominas

7/3/2021

Serie D · Round 5Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Juventude MA37%

×Draw25%

Paragominas37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventude MAExpected goals in this matchParagominas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

Juventude MA

1.39

Paragominas

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

1.21

creates per match

1.56

1.21

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Juventude MA

1.21

Paragominas

1.56

allows per match

Juventude MA

1.21

Paragominas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par

Paragominas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

Paragominas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw

63%

Juventude MA or Paragominas

75%

Draw or Paragominas

63%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+

17%

Paragominas wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals

75%

Juventude MA 2+ goals

40%

Juventude MA 3+ goals

16%

Paragominas 1+ goals

75%

Paragominas 2+ goals

40%

Paragominas 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)

50%

Paragominas (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Paragominas away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + Paragominas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Paragominas attack 1.56 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Juventude MA scores more

37%

level

25%

Paragominas scores more

37%

Juventude MA at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Juventude MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff