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Juventude MA vs Pacajus — Serie D 2018

Juventude MA
Juventude MA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pacajus
Pacajus
5/14/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Juventude MA39%
×Draw28%
Pacajus33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude MA
1.27
Pacajus
1.14

Juventude MA creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Pacajus
1.07

allows per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Pacajus
1.33

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par
Pacajus+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

Pacajus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw
67%
Juventude MA or Pacajus
72%
Draw or Pacajus
61%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+
17%
Pacajus wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals
72%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
36%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
14%
Pacajus 1+ goals
68%
Pacajus 2+ goals
32%
Pacajus 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)
54%
Pacajus (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Pacajus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + Pacajus defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pacajus attack 1.07 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Juventude MA scores more
39%
level
28%
Pacajus scores more
33%

Juventude MA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Juventude MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Juventude MA 0–1 Pacajus

Pacajus beat Juventude MA 1-0 in Serie D on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto in São Mateus, Maranhão.