Juventude MA 2–0 Guarany de Sobral: Result & Stats

Juventude MA

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarany de Sobral

7/24/2021

Serie D · Round 8Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Juventude MA43%

×Draw27%

Guarany de Sobral30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventude MAExpected goals in this matchGuarany de Sobral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.07

Juventude MA

1.35

Guarany de Sobral

1.07

Juventude MA creates 26% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

1.21

creates per match

0.94

1.21

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Juventude MA

1.21

Guarany de Sobral

0.94

allows per match

Juventude MA

1.21

Guarany de Sobral

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par

Guarany de Sobral+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

Guarany de Sobral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw

70%

Juventude MA or Guarany de Sobral

73%

Draw or Guarany de Sobral

57%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+

20%

Guarany de Sobral wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals

74%

Juventude MA 2+ goals

39%

Juventude MA 3+ goals

15%

Guarany de Sobral 1+ goals

66%

Guarany de Sobral 2+ goals

29%

Guarany de Sobral 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)

59%

Guarany de Sobral (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Guarany de Sobral away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + Guarany de Sobral defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Guarany de Sobral attack 0.94 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Juventude MA scores more

43%

level

27%

Guarany de Sobral scores more

30%

Juventude MA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Juventude MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff