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Juventude MA vs Castanhal — Serie D 2018

Juventude MA
Juventude MA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castanhal
Castanhal
6/11/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Juventude MA33%
×Draw26%
Castanhal41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude MA
1.21
Castanhal
1.37

Castanhal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Castanhal
1.53

allows per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Castanhal
1.20

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par
Castanhal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

Castanhal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw
59%
Juventude MA or Castanhal
74%
Draw or Castanhal
67%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+
14%
Castanhal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals
70%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
34%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
12%
Castanhal 1+ goals
75%
Castanhal 2+ goals
40%
Castanhal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)
45%
Castanhal (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Castanhal away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + Castanhal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Castanhal attack 1.53 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventude MA scores more
33%
level
26%
Castanhal scores more
41%

Castanhal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castanhal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventude MA vs Castanhal

Juventude MA beat Castanhal 1-0 in Serie D on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto in São Mateus, Maranhão.