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Juventude MA vs Bragantino PA — Serie D 2018

Juventude MA
Juventude MA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bragantino PA
Bragantino PA
12/5/2020Serie DSerie D · 16th FinalsEstádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Juventude MA40%
×Draw25%
Bragantino PA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude MA
1.45
Bragantino PA
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Bragantino PA
1.46

allows per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Bragantino PA
1.69

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par
Bragantino PA+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

Bragantino PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw
65%
Juventude MA or Bragantino PA
75%
Draw or Bragantino PA
60%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+
19%
Bragantino PA wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals
77%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
42%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
18%
Bragantino PA 1+ goals
74%
Bragantino PA 2+ goals
38%
Bragantino PA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)
54%
Bragantino PA (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Bragantino PA away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + Bragantino PA defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bragantino PA attack 1.46 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventude MA scores more
40%
level
25%
Bragantino PA scores more
35%

Juventude MA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventude MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventude MA vs Bragantino PA

Juventude MA and Bragantino PA drew 1-1 in Serie D on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto in São Mateus, Maranhão.