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Juventude II vs Sao Jose — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Juventude II
Juventude II
FT
0 – 1
Sao Jose
Sao Jose
9/18/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Homero Soldatelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Juventude II36%
×Draw29%
Sao Jose35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude II
1.11
Sao Jose
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Juventude II
1.40
Sao Jose
1.00

allows per match

Juventude II
1.20
Sao Jose
0.83

finishing

Juventude II+0.00on par
Sao Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude II ↓

Sao Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Juventude II or draw
65%
Juventude II or Sao Jose
71%
Draw or Sao Jose
64%

Winning margin

Juventude II wins by 2+
14%
Sao Jose wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Juventude II 1+ goals
67%
Juventude II 2+ goals
30%
Juventude II 3+ goals
10%
Sao Jose 1+ goals
67%
Sao Jose 2+ goals
30%
Sao Jose 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juventude II (draw refunded)
50%
Sao Jose (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Sao Jose away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude II attack 1.40 + Sao Jose defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sao Jose attack 1.00 + Juventude II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Juventude II scores more
36%
level
29%
Sao Jose scores more
35%

Juventude II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Juventude II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventude II vs Sao Jose

Sao Jose beat Juventude II 1-0 in Copa Gaúcha on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Homero Soldatelli in Flores da Cunha.