Juventude II 4–1 Aimoré: Result & Stats

Juventude II

FT

4 – 1

Aimoré

9/4/2024

Copa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Homero Soldatelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Juventude II48%

×Draw26%

Aimoré25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventude IIExpected goals in this matchAimoré

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.99

Juventude II

1.48

Aimoré

0.99

Juventude II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

0.78

1.20

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Juventude II

1.40

Aimoré

0.78

allows per match

Juventude II

1.20

Aimoré

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude II+0.00on par

Aimoré+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude II ↓

Aimoré →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juventude II or draw

75%

Juventude II or Aimoré

74%

Draw or Aimoré

52%

Winning margin

Juventude II wins by 2+

24%

Aimoré wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Juventude II 1+ goals

77%

Juventude II 2+ goals

43%

Juventude II 3+ goals

19%

Aimoré 1+ goals

63%

Aimoré 2+ goals

26%

Aimoré 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Juventude II (draw refunded)

66%

Aimoré (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Aimoré away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude II attack 1.40 + Aimoré defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Aimoré attack 0.78 + Juventude II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Juventude II scores more

48%

level

26%

Aimoré scores more

25%

Juventude II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Juventude II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff