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Juventude Évora vs Vilafranquense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Juventude Évora
Juventude Évora
AET
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
10/2/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Sanches de Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Juventude Évora38%
×Draw23%
Vilafranquense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude Évora
1.69
Vilafranquense
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Juventude Évora
1.80
Vilafranquense
1.86

allows per match

Juventude Évora
1.60
Vilafranquense
1.57

finishing

Juventude Évora+0.00on par
Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude Évora ↓

Vilafranquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Juventude Évora or draw
61%
Juventude Évora or Vilafranquense
77%
Draw or Vilafranquense
62%

Winning margin

Juventude Évora wins by 2+
19%
Vilafranquense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Juventude Évora 1+ goals
82%
Juventude Évora 2+ goals
50%
Juventude Évora 3+ goals
24%
Vilafranquense 1+ goals
82%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
52%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Juventude Évora (draw refunded)
49%
Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude Évora at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude Évora attack 1.80 + Vilafranquense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vilafranquense attack 1.86 + Juventude Évora defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Juventude Évora scores more
38%
level
23%
Vilafranquense scores more
39%

Vilafranquense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vilafranquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventude Évora vs Vilafranquense

Vilafranquense beat Juventude Évora 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Sanches de Miranda in Évora.