Juventude Évora 1–2 Sintrense: Result & Stats

Juventude Évora

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sintrense

9/24/2023

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Sanches de Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Juventude Évora38%

×Draw23%

Sintrense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventude ÉvoraExpected goals in this matchSintrense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

Juventude Évora

1.60

Sintrense

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.80

creates per match

1.60

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Juventude Évora

1.80

Sintrense

1.60

allows per match

Juventude Évora

1.60

Sintrense

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude Évora+0.00on par

Sintrense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude Évora ↓

Sintrense →

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Juventude Évora or draw

62%

Juventude Évora or Sintrense

77%

Draw or Sintrense

62%

Winning margin

Juventude Évora wins by 2+

19%

Sintrense wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Juventude Évora 1+ goals

80%

Juventude Évora 2+ goals

47%

Juventude Évora 3+ goals

22%

Sintrense 1+ goals

80%

Sintrense 2+ goals

47%

Sintrense 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Juventude Évora (draw refunded)

50%

Sintrense (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Juventude Évora at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Sintrense away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Juventude Évora attack 1.80 + Sintrense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sintrense attack 1.60 + Juventude Évora defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juventude Évora scores more

38%

level

23%

Sintrense scores more

38%

Juventude Évora at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juventude Évora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff