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Juventude Évora vs Portel — Taça de Portugal 2018

Juventude Évora
Juventude Évora
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Portel
Portel
9/10/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Sanches de Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventude Évora66%
×Draw20%
Portel14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude Évora
2.06
Portel
0.80

Juventude Évora creates 157% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Juventude Évora
1.80
Portel
0.00

allows per match

Juventude Évora
1.60
Portel
2.33

finishing

Juventude Évora+0.00on par
Portel+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude Évora ↓

Portel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Juventude Évora or draw
86%
Juventude Évora or Portel
80%
Draw or Portel
34%

Winning margin

Juventude Évora wins by 2+
42%
Portel wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Juventude Évora 1+ goals
87%
Juventude Évora 2+ goals
61%
Juventude Évora 3+ goals
34%
Portel 1+ goals
55%
Portel 2+ goals
19%
Portel 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Juventude Évora (draw refunded)
83%
Portel (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude Évora at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Portel away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude Évora attack 1.80 + Portel defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Portel attack 0.00 + Juventude Évora defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Juventude Évora scores more
66%
level
20%
Portel scores more
14%

Juventude Évora at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Juventude Évora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventude Évora vs Portel

Juventude Évora beat Portel 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Sanches de Miranda in Évora.