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Juventude Évora vs Armacenenses — Taça de Portugal 2018

Juventude Évora
Juventude Évora
FT
1 – 3
Armacenenses
Armacenenses
9/9/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Sanches de Miranda (Évora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventude Évora26%
×Draw23%
Armacenenses50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude Évora
1.24
Armacenenses
1.80

Armacenenses creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Juventude Évora
1.80
Armacenenses
2.00

allows per match

Juventude Évora
1.60
Armacenenses
0.67

finishing

Juventude Évora+0.00on par
Armacenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude Évora ↓

Armacenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Juventude Évora or draw
50%
Juventude Évora or Armacenenses
77%
Draw or Armacenenses
74%

Winning margin

Juventude Évora wins by 2+
11%
Armacenenses wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Juventude Évora 1+ goals
71%
Juventude Évora 2+ goals
35%
Juventude Évora 3+ goals
13%
Armacenenses 1+ goals
83%
Armacenenses 2+ goals
54%
Armacenenses 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Juventude Évora (draw refunded)
34%
Armacenenses (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude Évora at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Armacenenses away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude Évora attack 1.80 + Armacenenses defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Armacenenses attack 2.00 + Juventude Évora defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Juventude Évora scores more
26%
level
23%
Armacenenses scores more
50%

Armacenenses at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Armacenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventude Évora vs Armacenenses

Armacenenses beat Juventude Évora 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Sanches de Miranda (Évora).