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Juventude Évora vs Aljustrelense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Juventude Évora
Juventude Évora
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aljustrelense
Aljustrelense
9/20/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 1Estádio Sanches de Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Juventude Évora54%
×Draw22%
Aljustrelense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude Évora
1.95
Aljustrelense
1.25

Juventude Évora creates 56% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Juventude Évora
1.50
Aljustrelense
0.40

allows per match

Juventude Évora
2.10
Aljustrelense
2.40

finishing

Juventude Évora+0.00on par
Aljustrelense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude Évora ↓

Aljustrelense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Juventude Évora or draw
76%
Juventude Évora or Aljustrelense
78%
Draw or Aljustrelense
46%

Winning margin

Juventude Évora wins by 2+
31%
Aljustrelense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Juventude Évora 1+ goals
86%
Juventude Évora 2+ goals
58%
Juventude Évora 3+ goals
31%
Aljustrelense 1+ goals
71%
Aljustrelense 2+ goals
36%
Aljustrelense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Juventude Évora (draw refunded)
69%
Aljustrelense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude Évora at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Aljustrelense away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude Évora attack 1.50 + Aljustrelense defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Aljustrelense attack 0.40 + Juventude Évora defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Juventude Évora scores more
54%
level
22%
Aljustrelense scores more
24%

Juventude Évora at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juventude Évora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Juventude Évora 3–1 Aljustrelense

Juventude Évora beat Aljustrelense 3-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Sanches de Miranda in Évora.