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Juventude Évora vs Academica — Taça de Portugal 2018

Juventude Évora
Juventude Évora
FT
1 – 3
Academica
Academica
Unknown 90+2'
Unknown 86'
L. Sanca 77'
B. Teles 57'
10/11/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Sanches de Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Juventude Évora45%
×Draw26%
Academica29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude Évora
1.48
Academica
1.14

Juventude Évora creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Juventude Évora
1.80
Academica
0.67

allows per match

Juventude Évora
1.60
Academica
1.17

finishing

Juventude Évora+0.00on par
Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude Évora ↓

Academica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Juventude Évora or draw
71%
Juventude Évora or Academica
74%
Draw or Academica
55%

Winning margin

Juventude Évora wins by 2+
22%
Academica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Juventude Évora 1+ goals
77%
Juventude Évora 2+ goals
43%
Juventude Évora 3+ goals
19%
Academica 1+ goals
68%
Academica 2+ goals
32%
Academica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juventude Évora (draw refunded)
61%
Academica (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude Évora at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Academica away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude Évora attack 1.80 + Academica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Academica attack 0.67 + Juventude Évora defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Juventude Évora scores more
45%
level
26%
Academica scores more
29%

Juventude Évora at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Juventude Évora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
B. Teles
77'
L. Sanca
86'
90+2'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Juventude Évora 1–3 Academica

Academica beat Juventude Évora 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 11, 2020.

Goals: B. Teles (57'), L. Sanca (77'), ? (86', 90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Sanches de Miranda in Évora.