Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Juventud vs Tacuarembo — Segunda División 2026

Juventud
Juventud
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo
3/16/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 1Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Juventud48%
×Draw27%
Tacuarembo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud
1.43
Tacuarembo
0.94

Juventud creates 52% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 94 away

creates per match

Juventud
1.34
Tacuarembo
1.02

allows per match

Juventud
0.86
Tacuarembo
1.52

finishing

Juventud+0.00on par
Tacuarembo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud ↓

Tacuarembo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Juventud or draw
75%
Juventud or Tacuarembo
73%
Draw or Tacuarembo
52%

Winning margin

Juventud wins by 2+
24%
Tacuarembo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Juventud 1+ goals
76%
Juventud 2+ goals
42%
Juventud 3+ goals
17%
Tacuarembo 1+ goals
61%
Tacuarembo 2+ goals
24%
Tacuarembo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Juventud (draw refunded)
66%
Tacuarembo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Tacuarembo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud attack 1.34 + Tacuarembo defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tacuarembo attack 1.02 + Juventud defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Juventud scores more
48%
level
27%
Tacuarembo scores more
25%

Juventud at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Juventud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventud vs Tacuarembo

Tacuarembo beat Juventud 2-0 in Segunda División on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Abraham Paladino in Montevideo.