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Juventud vs SUD America — Segunda División 2026

Juventud
Juventud
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SUD America
SUD America
11/3/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 20Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Juventud46%
×Draw28%
SUD America26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud
1.31
SUD America
0.91

Juventud creates 44% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 70 away

creates per match

Juventud
1.34
SUD America
0.96

allows per match

Juventud
0.86
SUD America
1.29

finishing

Juventud+0.00on par
SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud ↓

SUD America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Juventud or draw
74%
Juventud or SUD America
72%
Draw or SUD America
54%

Winning margin

Juventud wins by 2+
21%
SUD America wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Juventud 1+ goals
73%
Juventud 2+ goals
38%
Juventud 3+ goals
14%
SUD America 1+ goals
60%
SUD America 2+ goals
23%
SUD America 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Juventud (draw refunded)
64%
SUD America (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud attack 1.34 + SUD America defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

SUD America attack 0.96 + Juventud defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Juventud scores more
46%
level
28%
SUD America scores more
26%

Juventud at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Juventud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Juventud 2–0 SUD America

Juventud beat SUD America 2-0 in Segunda División on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas in Las Piedras.