Juventud 1–1 Rocha: Result & Stats

Juventud

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rocha

9/14/2020

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventud63%

×Draw28%

Rocha9%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudExpected goals in this matchRocha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.33

Juventud

1.33

Rocha

0.33

Juventud creates 303% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

0.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Juventud

1.33

Rocha

0.33

allows per match

Juventud

0.33

Rocha

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud+0.00on par

Rocha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud ↓

Rocha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–025%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Juventud or draw

91%

Juventud or Rocha

72%

Draw or Rocha

37%

Winning margin

Juventud wins by 2+

31%

Rocha wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Juventud 1+ goals

74%

Juventud 2+ goals

38%

Juventud 3+ goals

15%

Rocha 1+ goals

28%

Rocha 2+ goals

4%

Rocha 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Juventud (draw refunded)

87%

Rocha (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Rocha away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud attack 1.33 + Rocha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rocha attack 0.33 + Juventud defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Juventud scores more

63%

level

28%

Rocha scores more

9%

Juventud at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Juventud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff