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Juventud vs Rampla Juniors — Segunda División 2026

Juventud
Juventud
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
10/14/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 17Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Juventud48%
×Draw28%
Rampla Juniors23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud
1.34
Rampla Juniors
0.84

Juventud creates 60% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 58 away

creates per match

Juventud
1.34
Rampla Juniors
0.83

allows per match

Juventud
0.86
Rampla Juniors
1.34

finishing

Juventud+0.00on par
Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud ↓

Rampla Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Juventud or draw
77%
Juventud or Rampla Juniors
72%
Draw or Rampla Juniors
52%

Winning margin

Juventud wins by 2+
23%
Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juventud 1+ goals
74%
Juventud 2+ goals
39%
Juventud 3+ goals
15%
Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
57%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
21%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Juventud (draw refunded)
67%
Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud attack 1.34 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rampla Juniors attack 0.83 + Juventud defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Juventud scores more
48%
level
28%
Rampla Juniors scores more
23%

Juventud at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Juventud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventud vs Rampla Juniors

Rampla Juniors beat Juventud 2-1 in Segunda División on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas in Las Piedras.