Juventud 1–1 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Juventud

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente Medellin

B. Larregui 74'

E. Larrosa 32'

3/6/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Qualification Round 3Gran Parque Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventud35%

×Draw31%

Independiente Medellin35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

Juventud

1.00

Independiente Medellin

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

0.33

creates per match

1.33

0.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Juventud

0.33

Independiente Medellin

1.33

allows per match

Juventud

0.67

Independiente Medellin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Juventud or draw

65%

Juventud or Independiente Medellin

69%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

65%

Winning margin

Juventud wins by 2+

13%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Juventud 1+ goals

63%

Juventud 2+ goals

26%

Juventud 3+ goals

8%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

63%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

26%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Juventud (draw refunded)

50%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud attack 0.33 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Independiente Medellin attack 1.33 + Juventud defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Juventud scores more

35%

level

31%

Independiente Medellin scores more

35%

Juventud at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Juventud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Larregui

Juventud · F

7.7

Match Events

32'

E. Larrosa

49'

Málcom Palacios

64'

A. Cruz← G. Gomez

71'

Halam Loboa

72'

F. Mimbacas← R. Sanchez

74'

B. Larregui

76'

H. Palacios← A. Serna

76'

F. Chaverra← E. Larrosa

84'

Federico Barrandeguy

86'

L. Escorcia← M. Palacios

88'

Emmanuel Más

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudIndependiente

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots7

1.08Expected Goals (xG)0.42

5Corners6

18Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots7

2On Target4

7Off Target2

1Blocked1

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

406Total Passes308

302Accurate Passes219

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.62Goals Prevented-0.62

Discipline

18Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3