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Juventud vs Albion FC — Segunda División 2026

Juventud
Juventud
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Albion FC
Albion FC
9/25/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 19Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Juventud42%
×Draw29%
Albion FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud
1.23
Albion FC
0.99

Juventud creates 24% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 95 away

creates per match

Juventud
1.34
Albion FC
1.12

allows per match

Juventud
0.86
Albion FC
1.11

finishing

Juventud+0.00on par
Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud ↓

Albion FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Juventud or draw
70%
Juventud or Albion FC
71%
Draw or Albion FC
58%

Winning margin

Juventud wins by 2+
18%
Albion FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juventud 1+ goals
71%
Juventud 2+ goals
35%
Juventud 3+ goals
13%
Albion FC 1+ goals
63%
Albion FC 2+ goals
26%
Albion FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Juventud (draw refunded)
58%
Albion FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.11 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud attack 1.34 + Albion FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Albion FC attack 1.12 + Juventud defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventud scores more
42%
level
29%
Albion FC scores more
30%

Juventud at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventud vs Albion FC

Juventud and Albion FC drew 0-0 in Segunda División on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas in Las Piedras.