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Juventud Unida vs Sportivo Barracas — Primera C 2026

Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
9/22/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 14Estadio Ciudad de San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Juventud Unida37%
×Draw31%
Sportivo Barracas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Unida
1.05
Sportivo Barracas
0.95

Juventud Unida creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

Juventud Unida
0.88
Sportivo Barracas
0.78

allows per match

Juventud Unida
1.13
Sportivo Barracas
1.22

finishing

Juventud Unida+0.00on par
Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida ↓

Sportivo Barracas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Juventud Unida or draw
68%
Juventud Unida or Sportivo Barracas
69%
Draw or Sportivo Barracas
63%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida wins by 2+
15%
Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Juventud Unida 1+ goals
65%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
28%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
9%
Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
61%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
25%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
54%
Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Sportivo Barracas away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida attack 0.88 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Sportivo Barracas attack 0.78 + Juventud Unida defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Juventud Unida scores more
37%
level
31%
Sportivo Barracas scores more
32%

Juventud Unida at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Juventud Unida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Juventud Unida 0–2 Sportivo Barracas

Sportivo Barracas beat Juventud Unida 2-0 in Primera C on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de San Miguel in San Miguel, Provincia de Buenos Aires.