Juventud Unida 3–1 General Lamadrid: Result & Stats

Juventud Unida

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

General Lamadrid

3/15/2025

Primera C · Round 2Estadio Ciudad de San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Juventud Unida37%

×Draw29%

General Lamadrid34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud UnidaExpected goals in this matchGeneral Lamadrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.07

Juventud Unida

1.12

General Lamadrid

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 136 away

0.88

creates per match

1.01

1.13

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Juventud Unida

0.88

General Lamadrid

1.01

allows per match

Juventud Unida

1.13

General Lamadrid

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud Unida+0.00on par

General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida ↓

General Lamadrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Juventud Unida or draw

66%

Juventud Unida or General Lamadrid

71%

Draw or General Lamadrid

63%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida wins by 2+

15%

General Lamadrid wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Juventud Unida 1+ goals

67%

Juventud Unida 2+ goals

31%

Juventud Unida 3+ goals

10%

General Lamadrid 1+ goals

66%

General Lamadrid 2+ goals

29%

General Lamadrid 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)

52%

General Lamadrid (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

General Lamadrid away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.36 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida attack 0.88 + General Lamadrid defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.12

General Lamadrid attack 1.01 + Juventud Unida defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Juventud Unida scores more

37%

level

29%

General Lamadrid scores more

34%

Juventud Unida at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Juventud Unida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff