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Juventud Unida vs Deportivo Paraguayo — Primera C 2026

Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo
7/12/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 17Estadio de San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Juventud Unida41%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Paraguayo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Unida
1.15
Deportivo Paraguayo
0.91

Juventud Unida creates 26% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 50 away

creates per match

Juventud Unida
0.88
Deportivo Paraguayo
0.68

allows per match

Juventud Unida
1.13
Deportivo Paraguayo
1.42

finishing

Juventud Unida+0.00on par
Deportivo Paraguayo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida ↓

Deportivo Paraguayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Juventud Unida or draw
71%
Juventud Unida or Deportivo Paraguayo
70%
Draw or Deportivo Paraguayo
59%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Paraguayo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Juventud Unida 1+ goals
68%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
32%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Paraguayo 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Paraguayo 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Paraguayo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Paraguayo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Deportivo Paraguayo away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida attack 0.88 + Deportivo Paraguayo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo Paraguayo attack 0.68 + Juventud Unida defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventud Unida scores more
41%
level
30%
Deportivo Paraguayo scores more
29%

Juventud Unida at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juventud Unida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Juventud Unida 2–0 Deportivo Paraguayo

Juventud Unida beat Deportivo Paraguayo 2-0 in Primera C on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de San Miguel in San Miguel.